MD_DA640

     Nonfat Dry Milk - Western U.S.

     Report 41 - Released on October 10, 2019

     In the West, reports about the low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) market conditions are
     mixed. However, the tendency is more toward strengthening outcomes. While some contacts say
     that sales are livelier than usual, others claim stable to declining trends. The proponents
     of stronger sales suggest that SMP/NDM exports to Mexico are improving, and regional
     supplies are tighter. The opponents report that low/medium heat NDM inventories are slowly
     building up due to buyers' resistance to current prices. Some sellers are opting to hold on
     to their inventories instead of accepting lower bids. U.S. prices for low/medium heat NDM
     are competitive on the global scale despite a rise in prices on both ends of the range and
     on the top of the mostly series this week. High heat NDM prices increased at the top of the
     range. Supplies are limited for spot sales because contractual order fulfillments remain the
     priority of processors. Production activities are irregular.

     The September 2019 Dairy Market News monthly average for the West low/medium heat nonfat dry
     milk mostly series is $1.0560 compared to $0.8750 a year ago. The average for Western high
     heat nonfat dry milk is $1.1928 compared to $1.0451 a year ago.
     Prices for: Western U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and
     Edible Nonfat Dry Milk
     Price Range - Low & Medium Heat; $/LB:                 1.0550 - 1.1700
     Mostly Range - Low & Medium Heat; $/LB:                1.1000 - 1.1500


     Prices for: Western U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and
     Edible Nonfat Dry Milk
     Price Range - High Heat; $/LB:                         1.2000 - 1.2700


     Information for the period October 7 - 11, 2019, issued weekly

     Secondary Sourced Information:

     Grade A nonfat dry milk price at the CME Group on Wednesday closed at $1.1625, up from last
     week's average price of $1.1320.

     The CME Group monthly average price for Grade A NDM during September was $1.0703, compared
     to $0.8845 a year ago.


     U.S. NDM Exports, H.S. Code 0402100000(FAS)
                      2019 Exports      % Change From
                      (Million Lb.)       1 Year Ago

     AUGUST Total         112.4              - 18

     TOTAL, JAN-AUG       994.2              - 15
      1 Mexico            478.4              -  5
      2 Philippines        98.2              - 25
      3 Indonesia          78.1              - 12
      4 Vietnam            72.7              + 18
      5 Malaysia           30.7              - 38


     Dairy Products Report ± Nonfat Dry Milk, Human Summary
     Released October 3, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
     Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

     Nonfat Dry Milk, Human Production ± States and United States: August 2018 and 2019

                           Monthly Production (1000 pound     Percent Change from
                              August      July    August       August      July
     Region                     2018      2019      2019         2018      2019
     United States           129,077   168,198   132,249          2.5     -21.4

     Atlantic                 28,809    31,547    29,629          2.8      -6.1
        Pennsylvania          13,100    15,129    13,838          5.6      -8.5

     Central                  25,041    30,795    30,994         23.8       0.6

     West                     75,227   105,856    71,626         -4.8     -32.3
        California            35,668    57,205    36,464          2.2     -36.3

     Other States 1/          80,309    95,864    81,947          2.0     -14.5
     1/ States not shown when fewer than 3 plants reported or individual plant operations could
     be disclosed.

     Nonfat Dry Milk, Human Production ± Cumulative Production January - August
                          Cumulative Production  Percent Change
                              (1000 pounds)          from
     Report Month               2018      2019       2018
     August                1,260,969 1,282,485        1.7

                                       Manufacturers' stocks end-of-month 3/
                           End of month stocks (1000 pounds)   Percent Change from
                              August      July    August       August      July
     Product                    2018      2019      2019         2018      2019
     Nonfat Dry Milk, Human  280,494   288,681   269,811         -3.8      -6.5
     3/ Stocks held by manufacturers at all points and in transit.

                                         Manufacturers' shipments 4/
                           End of month stocks (1000 pounds)  Percent Change from
                              August      July    August       August      July
     Product                    2018      2019      2019         2018      2019
     Nonfat dry milk, human  151,878   167,769   140,235         -7.7     -16.4
     4/ For dry products, shipments of bulk goods.
     Published by:
     Dairy Market News - Madison, WI
     FLORENCE KONE-GONZALEZ, (608)422-8594
     Email: florence.konegonzalez@usda.gov

     Additional Dairy Market News Information:
     Dairy Market News (DMN) by Phone: (608)422-8602
     DMN Website: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy
     DMN MARS (My Market News): https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov