MD_DA100 European Dairy Market Overview Report 41 - Released on October 12, 2023 NOTICE: After October 16, 2023, all information found on this report will transition to a new PDF format. The same data will be collected and disseminated through AMS Marketing Analysis and Reporting Services (MARS) platform. The new pdf report can be accessed on the AMS website at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_1033.pdf WESTERN EUROPEAN OVERVIEW: In Western Europe, weekly milk intakes are still declining seasonally but are fast approaching the nadir of the milk production season. Although milk output volumes will begin to increase soon, market participants are uncertain of how much milk may be available to processors in the coming months. This uncertainty has kept spot milk prices above current milk pay prices. According to CLAL data made available to USDA, weekly spot milk prices in Milan and Verona, Italy, range from 52.5 to 55.5 euros per 100kg. Spot milk prices have increased in the months of September and October, while milk pay prices to farmers have decreased steadily throughout much of 2023. The provisional average milk pay price in the EU-27 for the month of September is 43.54 euros per 100kg. The European Commission released their short-term outlook, autumn edition. In the report, dairy analysts expect milk production to increase 0.3 percent for 2023 and predict 2024 milk production to remain stable. Favorable weather, reduced feed costs, and better feed quality later in the year helped support the milk output. Although weak demand has kept commodity and milk pay prices in check, the report expects improvements within some key cheese and whey markets for EU processors. The report contends that EU food inflation, although slowing, will remain a dampening effect on domestic food purchases. Negotiations between EU and Mercosur officials in Brasilia yielded no further trade breakthroughs, but both sides agreed to continue discussions about specific issues, such as environmental protection. Negotiations with Australia have resumed. Negotiators expect some agreements in place that may provide duty-free access for EU cheeses in Australia, while some other dairy products may be subject to tariff-rate quotas. EASTERN EUROPEAN OVERVIEW: Milk production in Eastern Europe, although seasonally decreasing, has remained strong within parts of the region. According to CLAL data made available to USDA, August 2023 cows' milk delivered to dairies in Poland was 1,091,000 MT, up 1.9 percent from August 2022. Year-to-date milk deliveries through August 2023 in Poland, 8,814,000 MT, increased 1.5 percent compared to year-to-date milk deliveries through August 2022. Likewise, milk output in the Czech Republic has grown at a similar rate. Critical to European and global grain supplies, Ukrainian September grain exports totaled 1.57 million metric tons compared to 3.21 million metric tons in 2022. For the 2023/24 grain shipment season that began in July, Ukraine has shipped 6.2 million tons of grain versus the 7.5 million tons shipped the previous season. Market participants suggest that blockages of the Black Sea ports and the ability to ship limited volumes of grain through smaller Danube River ports and western land crossings have reduced shipments. The expected volume of exportable Ukrainian grain for the 2023/24 season is about 50 million tons. Information for the period October 2 - 13, 2023, issued biweekly Secondary Sourced Information: NOTICE: AMS Dairy Program is excited to have an integral role in hosting the International Dairy Federation's World Dairy Summit 2023 which will take place Monday October 16 through Thursday October 19, 2023, at Chicago's McCormick Place. Onsite registration is available. Please visit the World Dairy Summit website to learn more. Helpful Links: World Dairy Summit 2023 Website: https://idfwds2023.com/ International Dairy Federation: https://fil-idf.org/ Published by: Dairy Market News - Madison, WI MIKE BANDLI, (608)422-8592 Email: mike.bandli@usda.gov Additional Dairy Market News Information: Dairy Market News (DMN) by Phone: (608)422-8602 DMN Website: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy DMN MARS (My Market News): https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov